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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."